The projections made by the Zambia Statistics Agency from 2011 to 2035 indicate that Lusaka Province’s population is projected to grow from 2.36 million in 2011 to 5.47 million by 2035. Within that, Lusaka District, which hosts the capital city, is expected to expand from 1.89 million in 2011 to over 3.7 million by 2035, maintaining an annual growth rate of approximately 3.8%, one of the highest in the country. By 2035, the province will also be among the most urbanised, with 86.4% of its population living in urban areas.
This population growth presents serious socio-economic challenges for infrastructure, housing, sanitation, and transport systems in Lusaka. The city is already experiencing congestion, inadequate drainage, and overstrained social services. By 2035 and beyond, population density in Lusaka city and land scarcity will likely worsen, complicating urban planning, roads, and environmental management.
Based on these demographic projections, I still argue that Zambia needs a new administrative capital and make Lusaka a Commercial city. It is expected that establishing a new administrative capital, especially in the heart of Central Province, could help in many areas, such as decongesting Lusaka city, as well as enhancing administrative efficiency by building a purpose-designed government hub.
Zambia can draw lessons from countries that have relocated their capital cities, such as Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Tanzania, and Australia, among others. In most cases, the decision was driven by factors such as urban overcrowding, the need for a more central location, and the desire to establish a well-planned administrative city. It should also be indicated that although relocating a capital is an expensive undertaking, international best practices show that it can be achieved through a gradual and carefully phased approach.
Source of statistics: https://www.zamstats.gov.zm/
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mr. Innocent Siachitoba is a Researcher at the Zambia Law Development Commission (Demography, Population Sciences, Monitoring and Evaluation). He writes in his personal capacity.
The views expressed in this article are solely mine and do not represent any organisation with which I am affiliated.
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